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1. Three years ago, because of flooding at the Western Palean Wildlife Preserve, 100 lions and 100 western gazelles were moved to the East Palean Preserve, an area that is home to most of the same species that are found in the western preserve, though in larger numbers, and to the eastern gazelle, a close relative of the western gazelle. The only difference in climate is that the eastern preserve typically has slightly less rainfall. Unfortunately, after three years in the eastern preserve, the imported western gazelle population has been virtually eliminated. Since the slight reduction in rainfall cannot be the cause of the virtual elimination of western gazelle, their disappearance must have been caused by the larger number of predators in the eastern preserve.
三年前，由于Western Palean野生动物保护区发洪水，100只狮子和100只西方羚羊转移到了East Palean保护区。生活在东区的物种和生活在西保护区的物种大部分相同 ，只不过数量比西区多。东方羚羊是西方羚羊的近亲。两地气候上唯一的不同是东区降雨量稍微少一些。不幸的是，在东区生活三年后，引进的西方羚羊基本销声匿迹。因为降雨量轻微的减少不可能时是造成西方羚羊灭绝的原因，那么它们的消失只能是东区大量的食肉动物造成的。
Write a response in which you discuss what specific evidence is needed to evaluate the argument and explain how the evidence would weaken or strengthen the argument.
2. Workers in the small town of Leeville take fewer sick days than workers in the large city of Masonton, 50 miles away. Moreover, relative to population size, the diagnosis of stress-related illness is proportionally much lower in Leeville than in Masonton. According to the Leeville Chamber of Commerce, these facts can be attributed to the health benefits of the relatively relaxed pace of life in Leeville.
小城镇Leeville工人休病假的天数比50英里外的大城市Masonton的少。另外，相对人口规模而言，和压力有关的疾病发病率在Leeville要远低于Masonton。Leeville商会认为，这些事实可以归因为Leeville压力相对较小的悠闲的生活方式。
Write a response in which you discuss one or more alternative explanations that could rival the proposed explanation and explain how your explanation(s) can plausibly account for the facts presented in the argument.
3. The following appeared in a memorandum from the manager of WWAC radio station.
"WWAC must change from its current rock-music format because the number of listeners has been declining, even though the population in our listening area has been growing. The population growth has resulted mainly from people moving to our area after their retirement, and we must make listeners of these new residents. But they seem to have limited interest in music: several local stores selling recorded music have recently closed. Therefore, just changing to another kind of music is not going to increase our audience. Instead, we should adopt a news-and-talk format, a form of radio that is increasingly popular in our area."
下面这段文字出自WWAC电台经理的备忘录。
WWAC必须改变摇滚音乐的风格，因为虽然电台覆盖的区域总人口增加了，但听众减少了。人口的增加主要是由于退休后来我们这养老的人增多了，所以我们必须制作新居民喜欢的音乐。但是他们貌似对音乐不怎么感兴趣，很多卖录制音乐的商店已经关门了。因此，单纯把摇滚乐换成另外一种音乐并不能增加我们的听众。相反，我们应该采用新闻和对话类节目，这是一种在我们这愈加流行的一种节目。
Write a response in which you discuss what questions would need to be answered in order to decide whether the recommendation and the argument on which it is based are reasonable. Be sure to explain how the answers to these questions would help to evaluate the recommendation.
4. The vice president of human resources at Climpson Industries sent the following recommendation to the company's president.
"A recent national survey found that the majority of workers with access to the Internet at work had used company computers for personal or recreational activities, such as banking or playing games. In an effort to improve our employees' productivity, we should implement electronic monitoring of employees' Internet use from their workstations. Using electronic monitoring software is the best way to reduce the number of hours Climpson employees spend on personal or recreational activities. We predict that installing software to monitor employees' Internet use will allow us to prevent employees from wasting time, thereby increasing productivity and improving overall profits."
Climpson人力资源副总裁给公司总裁提出如下建议：
为提高员工的生产效率，我们应该在员工的终端上加装电子监控来监视员工对互联网的使用。如果我们要减少用于私人以及娱乐活动，比如购物或玩游戏的工作时间，在终端上使用互联网的员工必须要被确认并且受到惩罚。通过在公司电脑上安装检测员工使用互联网的软件，我们可以防止员工浪费时间，并提高生产效率和整体利润。
Write a response in which you discuss what questions would need to be answered in order to decide whether the prediction and the argument on which it is based are reasonable. Be sure to explain how the answers to these questions would help to evaluate the prediction.
5. The following appeared in a memo from the new vice president of Sartorian, a company that manufactures men's clothing.
"Five years ago, at a time when we had difficulty obtaining reliable supplies of high-quality wool fabric, we discontinued production of our popular alpaca overcoat. Now that we have a new fabric supplier, we should resume production. Given the outcry from our customers when we discontinued this product and the fact that none of our competitors offers a comparable product, we can expect pent-up consumer demand for our alpaca coats. This demand and the overall increase in clothing prices will make Sartorian's alpaca overcoats more profitable than ever before."
下面这段文字出自一家生产男士服装的公司Sartorian新的副总裁的备忘录。
五年前，当我们在获取可靠的高质量羊毛毛料的渠道方面存在困难的时候，我们停止了时尚羊毛外衣的生产。现在有了新的毛料供应商，我们应该重新开始生产。这种外衣应该卖得很好，因为我们已经五年没有供应羊毛外衣了，而且由于我们的主要竞争对手已不再生产羊毛外衣，消费者将有很迫切的需求。这种需求和服装价格的整体上涨将使Sartorian的羊毛外衣比以前更赚钱。
Write a response in which you examine the stated and/or unstated assumptions of the argument. Be sure to explain how the argument depends on these assumptions and what the implications are for the argument if the assumptions prove unwarranted.
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