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However, the memo provides no evidence to substantiate this assumption. Perhaps people
are increasing their savings rather than spending their additional income. If so, this fact would
significantly undermine the vice president's claim that demand for leisure products is
increasing, and therefore that Megamart would benefit by offering more such products.
Yet another problem with the argument involves the reason why average income has risen in
the first place. It is entirely possible that income has risen because people have been working
more hours. If so, then in all likelihood people have less leisure time, in which case they will not
spend more money on leisure products--simply because they have less time for leisure
pursuits. Without addressing this issue, the vice president cannot convince me that Megamart
should expand itsline of leisure products.
In conclusion, the vice president's argument is unconvincing as it stands. To strengthen it the
vice president must provide strong evidence that discretionary income is rising and will
continue to rise. The vice president must also show that people will in fact choose to spend this
income on leisure products, and that people have enough free time for leisure pursuits in the
first place.
257
Argument 106
The following appeared in an article in a magazine for writers.
"A recent study showed that in describing a typical day's conversation, people make an
average of 23 references to watching television and only 1 reference to reading fiction. This
result suggests that, compared with the television industry, the publishing and bookselling
industries are likely to decline in profitability. Therefore, people who wish to have careers as
writers should acquire training and experience in writing for television rather than for print
media."
This article cites a recent study showing that during a typical day people make an average of
23 references to watching television but only one reference to reading fiction. From these
statistics the author reasons that the television industry must be far more profitable than the
book-publishing industry, then concludes that people seeking careers in writing should acquire
training and experience in television writing. This argument is flawed in several critical
respects.
First of all, the article's author has not shown the study upon which the argument depends to
be statistically reliable. The people studied must be representative of the overall population of
people who buy books and watch television; otherwise the author cannot draw any firm
conclusions about the comparative profitability of the television and book publishing industries
based on the study's results.
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