7.The following appeared in a letter to the editor of the Clearview newspaper.
"In the next mayoral election, residents of Clearview should vote for Ann Green, who is a member of the Good Earth Coalition, rather than for Frank Braun, a member of the Clearview town council, because the current members are not protecting our environment. For example, during the past year the number of factories in Clearview has doubled, air pollution levels have increased, and the local hospital has treated 25 percent more patients with respiratory illnesses. If we elect Ann Green, the environmental problems in Clearview will certainly be solved."
A、作者并没有给出呼吸疾病患者的基数。如果基数比较小,那么即使增加少量的人,也会导致增长的比值很大。也是呼吸疾病患者确实大量增加了,也不一定说明是空气污染造成的。常识告诉我们,气候变化也可能造成呼吸疾病。
B、即使是由于空气污染造成的,也并不一定是由于C地区的工厂增加导致的。空气污染恶化可能和C地区的气候变化有关,例如季风的变化,季风变化后可能就带不走C地区工厂排放的废气,造成C地区的废气积累。另外,C地区的工厂数增加也存在着基数问题。
C、即使是因为C地区的工厂数增加了,导致了C地区的空气污染恶化,也并非是由于FB不采取环境保护的缘故。工厂数增加可能是由于C地区经济快速发展。国家的宏观调控对C地区也有影响。
D、即使是由于FB不采取环境保护,作者也错误地假设了只要AG上台,就能够解决C地区的环境问题。环境问题牵扯到很多因素,AG虽然是GEC的成员,也并不代表AG就有能力解决这诸多因素。另外,如果是国家宏观调控的话,AG显然还是没有办法解决。
8.The following appeared in a memorandum issued by the strategic planning department at Omni Inc.
"Mesa Foods, a manufacturer of snack foods that currently markets its products within a relatively small region of the country, has strong growth potential. Mesa enjoyed a 20 percent increase in profits last year, and its best-selling product, Diabolique Salsa, has had increased sales over each of the past three years. Since Omni Inc. is interested in reaching 14-to-25 year olds, the age group that consumes the most snack food, we should buy Mesa Foods, and concentrate in particular on marketing Diabolique Salsa throughout the country."
A、首先,作者简单地认为利润高是并购的充分条件。两家公司要能够实现成功并购,需要考虑两家公司的企业文化是否能够很好地融合,如果不能够的话,一加一可能会小于二,甚至小于一。还有收购的费用是否合理等。
B、MF去年的利润增长了,并不代表MF今年以及今后仍然能够保持增长。人们的口味会随着时间有所改变,今后人们可能就不喜欢DS食品的味道了,或者人们开始更看重食品的健康程度而非口味,而DS的食品健康性可能不尽如人意。
C、正如作者所说,O公司对14至25岁人群比较感兴趣,但作者并未说明MF的DS适合该人群。即使DS适合该人群,也正如作者在文中所提到的,DS只是在一个小地区获得了成功,并不代表可以在全国获得成功。
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