13.The following appeared in a memo from the chief executive of a video game company.
"We have recently been offered the opportunity to buy the rights to produce a video game based on the soon-to-be-published children's book "Squirrel Power," by Peter Wood. While the cost of the rights is substantial and will place economic constraints on our company in the short-term, there are two reasons that the purchase of these rights will undoubtedly be a wise investment. First, Wood's last three books have been best sellers and the movie based on his first book was highly profitable. Second, the popular characters and story line in "Squirrel Power" will save us time in developing our video game, thereby reducing our costs."
A、PW的前三本书买得好并不能够保证他的第四本书SP也能够买得好。
B、即使第四本书SP也能够卖得好，也不代表根据该书改编的游戏能够畅销，两者属于不同类型的产品，拥有不同的属性和用户群，电影热卖也不能说明问题，因为电影和游戏仍然属于不同的产品，拥有不同的用户群。
C、即使该游戏能够热卖，该游戏公司也未必能够赚到钱。正如作者所说，购买该版权将花费大量资金，而且作者并没有说明开发该游戏将要花费的资金。根据经济学常识，利润等于销售额减去成本，如果该游戏厂商成本很大的话，即使游戏热卖，也未必能够实现盈利，甚至可能亏损。
14.The following appeared in a memo from the owner of Green Thumb Gardening Center, a small business serving a suburban town.
"There is evidence that consumers are becoming more and more interested in growing their own vegetables. A national survey conducted last month indicated that many consumers were dissatisfied with the quality of fresh vegetables available in supermarkets. And locally, the gardening magazine Great Gardens has sold out at the Village News stand three months in a row. Thus, we at Green Thumb Gardening Center can increase our profits by greatly expanding the variety of vegetable seeds we stock for gardeners this coming spring."
A、首先，怀疑该全国性调查样本的随机性是否足够。如果该样本随机性不够，则不能够代表整个消费者人群，因而无法支持作者的观点(unwarranted conclusion)。即使该全国性调查满足样本随机性，那也是全国范围的，对于该镇并不一定成立。例如该镇可能农业比较发达，蔬菜比较新鲜，那么消费者就不会抱怨蔬菜不够新鲜。
B、即使该调查的结果符合该镇的具体情况，人们对蔬菜的新鲜度不满意，并不能够说明人们就会喜欢种植他们自己的蔬菜，这里面不存在必然联系。因为种植蔬菜可能比较繁琐，或者有些人没有终止场所，该地区气候不适宜等。
C、GG杂志卖完不能够说明很多人喜欢种植自己的蔬菜，可能该杂志发行量本来就很小，或者说该杂志内还有其他的娱乐类信息吸引读者，或者该杂志进行了有奖促销等等。
D、即使该镇居民越来越热衷于种植自己的蔬菜，也不一定会给GTGC公司带来更多的利润，经济学常识告诉我们，利润等于销售总额减去成本。如果GTGC公司运营种子销售成本很高，例如种子本身成本，以及GTGC公司的宣传广告等品牌创造成本等，那么GTGC不但可能不会盈利，甚至有可能会亏本。另外，居民可能只喜欢种植少数的几种菜，那么增加种子多样性不会提高该公司种子的销售量。
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