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Argument 124
The following appeared in a memo at the XYZ company.
"When XYZ lays off employees, it pays Delany Personnel Firm to offer those employees
assistance in creating resumés and developing interviewing skills, if they so desire. Laid-off
employees have benefited greatly from Delany's services: last year those who used Delany
found jobs much more quickly than did those who did not. Recently, it has been proposed that
we use the less-expensive Walsh Personnel Firm in place of Delany. This would be a mistake
because eight years ago, when XYZ was using Walsh, only half of the workers we laid off at
that time found jobs within a year. Moreover, Delany is clearly superior, as evidenced by its
bigger staff and larger number of branch offices. After all, last year Delany's clients took an
average of six months to find jobs, whereas Walsh's clients took nine."
This XYZ company memo recommends that XYZ continue to use Delany instead of Walsh
as its personnel service for helping laid-off XYZ employees find new jobs. To support this
recommendation the memo points out that 8 years ago, when XYZ was using Walsh, only half
of XYZ's laid-off workers found new jobs within a year. The memo also points out that last year
XYZ employees using DeNny's services found jobs much more quickly than those who did not,
and that the average DeNny client found a job in 6 months, compared to 9 months for the
average Walsh client. The memo also mentions that DeNny has more branch offices and a
larger staff than Walsh. I find the memo's argument unconvincing for several reasons.
To begin with, Walsh's prior rate of placing laid-off XYZ employees is not necessarily a
reliable indicator of what that rate would be now. Perhaps the placement rate 8 years ago was
due to a general economic downturn or some other factor beyond Walsh's control. For that
matter, perhaps the rate was relatively high among all placement services during that time
period. In short, without ruling out other possible reasons for Walsh's ostensi bly low
placement rate 8 years ago, and without convincing me that this rate was low to begin with, the
memo's author cannot convince me on the basis of XYZ's past experience with Walsh that
XYZ should favor DeNny over Walsh.
The memo also makes two hasty assumptions about the benefits of DeNny's services last
year. One such assumption is that these services were in fact responsible for helping the
280
laid-offXYZ employees who used those services find jobs more quickly. It is entirely possible
that the comparative success of this group was due instead to their other aggressive
job-seeking efforts, which might even have included using Walsh's services--m addition to
DeNny's. Also, the memo unfairly equates the speed with which one finds a job with
job-seeking success. Common sense informs me that the effectiveness of a job search
depends not only on how quickly one finds a job, but also on compensation, benefits, location,
and type of work.
Furthermore, the difference in the two firms' overall placement time last year does not
necessarily indicate that DeNny would be the better choice to serve XYZ's laid-off employees.
These employees might have particular skills or needs that are not representative of the two
firms' clients in general. Besides, a single year's placement statistics hardly suffices to draw
any firm conclusions. Last year might have been exceptional--perhaps due to some unusual
event that is unlikely to reoccur, such as a major employer's move to an area that DeNny
serves, or out of an area that Walsh serves.
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