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then salary could not have been a factor in their decision to defect to Sparks. In short, until the
president establishes a clear causal relationship between the advertised salaries and the
defection of some Automate employees to Sparks, the president cannot reasonably conclude
that Automate must increase its salaries in order to prevent additional employees from
defecting to Sparks in the future.
Thirdly, even assuming that those defectors did leave Automate because Sparks offered
higher salaries for similar work, the president's argument rests on the additional assumptions
that the number of defectors is significant and that these defectors are valuable to Automate.
Yet the president fails to substantiate either assumption. Perhaps only a very small percentage
of Automate's worker's have defected; if so, the president's proposed salary increases might
amount to an overreaction. Or, perhaps the defectors were among Automate's least valuable
employees; for that matter, perhaps Automate's most valuable employees are the ones who
are most loyal and would not leave Automate even if they were offered a higher salary
elsewhere. Without substantiating both assumptions, the president cannot reasonably
conclude that Automate must raise the salaries of its best workers in order to retain them.
Finally, the mere fact that Sparks plans to build additional new plants in the state amounts to
scant evidence that Automate will continue to lose valuable employees unless it raises their
salaries. Perhaps Sparks plans to staff those new plants with workers from its other plants, or
from other sources besides Automate. Or, perhaps Sparks is advertising high salaries now
simply to gain a foothold into the state's labor market, and that once Sparks is established in
the state it will offer lower salaries for new jobs. Besides, Sparks' plan to build additional plants
might amount to sheer speculation, in which case the president's proposed salary increases
would seem hasty.
In sum, the president's recommendation seems ill-conceived, at least lacking additional
supporting evidence. To bolster the argument the president must provide clear evidence that a
significant percentage of Automate's valuable employees have defected to Sparks because
Sparks offered them higher salaries for similar work rather than for some other reason. The
president must also provide better evidence that this is a trend that is likely to continue and to
harm Automate's operations unless Automate boosts the salaries of its best employees to
match the salaries Sparks would pay those employees.
Argument 26
The following is a memo from the superintendent of the Mylar school district.
"A recent six-month study, in which breakfast was made available at school for 100
schoolchildren ages five to twelve, found that children on the breakfast plan were less likely
than other children to be absent from or late for school. Clearly, eating breakfast before school
plays a role in reducing student absenteeism and tardiness. It is also well known that children
who regularly eat a healthful breakfast tend to perform better in school. Therefore, in order to
reduce absenteeism and tardiness and to improve academic performance in all of Mylar's
elementary and secondary schools, we should provide breakfasts for all students before each
school day."
In this memo the superintendent of the Mylar school district concludes that by providing
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