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Venezuelan government debt——Running out of time
委内瑞拉国债：时间所剩无几
A devastating spiral continues.
一场持续性灾难。
To most investors, Venezuela looks less like a market than a mess.
对于大多说投资者来说，委内瑞拉不能称为市场，只能说是一片混乱。
The IMF expects output to shrink by 10% this year and inflation to exceed 700%.
国际基金货币组织预计本年度该国年产量将缩水10%，通货膨胀率超过700%。
As the bolivar’s value has plunged, multinational firms have announced billions of dollars of write-downs.
因委内瑞拉币值大幅贬值，跨国公司宣称数以十亿资产缩水。
For much of this year, however, some strong-stomached investors have scented an opportunity.
然而一些胆大的投资者在今年大半年的时间里都嗅到了都投资机会。
They rushed to buy bonds issued by the government and by the state-owned oil company, PDVSA.
他们将政府和委内瑞拉国家石油公司(PDVSA)发行的债券抢售一空。
They have been rewarded handsomely.
如今他们都收获颇丰。
Venezuelan government bonds have outperformed other emerging-market sovereign bonds tracked by JP Morgan.
据摩根银行的跟踪调查，委内瑞拉政府债券比较其他新兴市场的主权债券在市场上的表现还要好。
The government, led by Nicolas Maduro, boasts it has never missed a debt payment.
由马杜罗领导的委内瑞拉政府表示国家从未拖欠债务。
Indeed he has given priority to debt service over other urgent needs, such as importing food.
事实上，相比进口食物等紧急需求，马杜罗确实将债务放到了第一位。
Mr. Maduro is keen not to scare off the foreign creditors sorely needed by PDVSA.
委内瑞拉石油公司急需外资，马杜罗不希望因债务吓跑国外债权人。
However, Venezuela looks increasingly stretched.
然而委内瑞拉的债务偿还起来也是日益捉襟见肘。
Two big PDVSA payments, of $1 billion and $2 billion, are due on October 28th and November 2nd.
委内瑞拉石油公司的两大笔款项(一笔10亿美元，另一笔20亿美元)将分别在10月28日和11月2日到期。
Last month the company proposed a bond swap to ease a looming payments crunch: investors holding PDVSA bonds maturing in 2017 (which are not backed by a full sovereign guarantee) ,would exchange them for bonds maturing in 2020.
上月该公司提议用债券互换来缓解即将到来的支付危机：持有2017年即将到期债券(且没有完整的主权担保的)持有人可以将其换成2020年到期的新债券。
This would buy Venezuela time, perhaps in the hope that oil prices rise.
这一举措将给委内瑞拉赢得一些时间，或许此举寄希望于未来油价上涨。
Not so fast.
不过，事情进展没有那么快。
Even sweetened terms for the swap have failed to lure investors.
优惠政策也未能吸引投资者。
PDVSA has four times delayed the deadline for the exchange, most recently to October 21st.
委内瑞拉国有石油公司已经四次延缓交易截止日期了，最后一次是延缓到11月21日。
PDVSA warned in a press release on October 17th that if its offer is not accepted, “it could be difficult” to make its scheduled payments.
10月17日该公司对媒体表示倘若没人愿意投资，他们可能很难按期付款。
Francisco Velasco of Exotix, a brokerage specializing in frontier markets, says investors face a prisoner’s dilemma.
Exotic是一家专营前沿市场的经纪公司，该工司的Francisco Velasco表示投资者陷入了囚徒困境。
They could aGREe to a swap, with terms that are less than ideal, in the hope that other investors will do the same.
他们会同意一次掉期交易，条件没那么理想，希望其他的投资者也一样做。
Or they could decline PDVSA’s offer. But that would make default ever more likely.
也许他们会减少PDVSA的开价。但是那样的话拖欠更可能发生。
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