GRE写作成为横在中国学生的理想和现实之间的一大障碍，因此，如何攻克写作这道屏障，成为摆在我们面前的首要任务。
This excerpt from an investment newsletter cites a recent study in which 80% of
respondents indicated a desire to reduce their consumption of high-fat and high-cholesterol
foods, then points out that food stores are well-stocked with low-fat food products. Based on
this evidence the newsletter predicts a significant decline in sales and profits for Old Dairy
(OD), a producer of dairy products high in fat and cholesterol, and advises investors not to own
OD stock. I find this advice specious, on several grounds.
First, the excerpt fails to assure me that the survey results accurately reflect the desires of
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most consumers, or that the results accurately predict consumer behavior. Without evidence
that the respondents' desires are representative of those of the overall population where OD
products are sold, it is hasty to draw any conclusions about future food buying habits from the
survey. Moreover, common sense informs me that consumers do not necessarily make
food-purchase decisions in strict accordance with their expressed desires. Thus as it stands
the statistic that the newsletter cites amounts to scant evidence that OD sales and profits will
decline in the future.
Secondly, the fact that low-fat foods are in abundant supply in food stores does not
necessarily indicate an increasing demand for low-fat dairy products or a diminishing demand
for high-fat dairy products. Absent evidence to the contrary, it is quite possible that consumers
are buying other types of low-fat foods but are still demanding high fat in their dairy products.
For that matter, it is entirely possible that food stores are well-stocked with low-fat foods
because actual demand has not met the demand anticipated by the stores.
Thirdly, even assuming an indisputable consumer trend toward purchasing more low-fat
daizy products and fewer high-fat dairy products, the newsletter concludes too hastily that OD
profits will decline as a result. OD can always raise the price of its dairy products to offset
declining sales, and given a sufficient demand OD might still turn a profit, despite the general
consumer trend. Besides, profit is a function of not just revenue but also expenses. Perhaps
OD expenses will decline by a greater amount than its revenue; if so, then OD profits will
increase despite falling revenues.
In sum, without additional information prudent investors should refrain from following the
newsletter's advice. To better assess the soundness of this advice it would be helpful to know
the following: (1) the demographic profile of the survey's respondents; (2) the extent to which
consumer desires regarding food intake accord with their subsequent behavior; (3) the extent
of OD loyalty among its regular retail customers who might continue to prefer OD products
over low-fat products even at higher prices; and (4) the extent to which OD might be able to
reduce expenses to offset any revenue loss resulting from diminishing sales of OD products.
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