In conclusion, the recommendation for emulating Panoply's work-shift policy is not well
supported. To convince me that shorter work shifts would reduce Alta's on-the-job accident
rate, the author must provide clear evidence that work-shift length is responsible for some of
Alta's accidents. The author must also supply evidence to support her final conclusion that a
lower accident rate would in fact increase overall worker productivity.
The following appeared in a memo from the owner of Green Thumb Gardening Center, a small
business serving a suburban town.
"There is evidence that consumers are becoming more and more interested in growing their
own -vegetables. A national survey conducted last month indicated that many consumers were
dissatisfied with the quality of fresh vegetables available in supermarkets. And locally, the
gardening magazine Great Gardens has sold out at the Village News stand three months in a
row. Thus, we at Green Thumb Gardening Center can increase our profits by greatly
expanding the variety of vegetable seeds we stock for gardeners this coming spring."
In this memo the owner of Green Thumb Gardening Center (GT) concludes that GT could
increase its profits by expanding its stock of vegetable seeds. The owner cites a national
survey showing growing dissatisfaction with supermarket vegetables, and points out that a
certain gardening magazine has sold out at one local newsstand three months in a row. I find
the owner's argument weak, for three reasons.
First, by relying on the national survey to support its conclusion the argument depends on
the assumption that the level of satisfaction locally with store-bought groceries reflects national
levels. Yet the owner provides no evidence to support this assumption. It is possible that
residents of this town are quite satisfied with these vegetables. Without eliminating this
possibility, the owner cannot rely on the national survey to conclude that this town's residents
would be interested in buying vegetable seeds from GT.
Secondly, by relying on the survey the argument assumes that consumers who are
dissatisfied with store-bought groceries are likely to grow their own vegetables instead.
However, the owner fails to provide any evidence to support this assumption. Perhaps
consumers are continuing to buy vegetables from grocery stores despite their dissatisfaction.