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Finally, even if the author can substantiate the foregoing assumptions, I remain unconvinced
that the impending increase in sales will occur within the next few months. Perhaps
video-game sales are highly seasonal and Whirlwind will need to wait longer than two months
to see the dramatic increase it expects. If so, the author must modify the prediction
accordingly.
In sum, the argument is unconvincing as it stands. To strengthen it the author must provide
clear evidence that video-game enthusiasts 10-25 years of age would be interested in
Whirlwind's new games, and that they could afford to buy them. To better assess the argument
I would need to know (1) what caused the two-year sales decline to begin with, and whether
Whirlwind's new strategy eliminates that cause; (2) what competing products might serve to
diminish sales of Whirlwind's new games during the next few months; and (3) when
Whirlwind's introduction of its new games has occurred in relation to the peak video-game
sales season, if any.
Argument 36
The following appeared in the editorial section of Monroetown's local newspaper.
"Mayor Brown was recently re-elected by a clear majority of 52 percent of Monroetown's voters.
Her re-election, however, does not show that most people in our town favored Mayor Brown's
proposal for tax reduction over that of her opponent, Mr. Greene, who proposed raising taxes
180
to improve education. It has been shown that voters nationwide tend to re-elect people already
in office, regardless of candidates' proposals. In fact, a local survey after the election showed
most people in Monroetown disagreed with Mayor Brown's proposal. Clearly most people in
Monroetown favor improving education and therefore approve of Mr. Greene's proposal
despite the fact that they did not vote for him."
The author of this editorial concludes that most Monroetown residents favor Greene's
proposal to raise taxes in order to improve education over Brown's proposal to cut taxes, even
though incumbent Brown defeated Greene by way of a 52O/o majority vote in a recent mayoral
election. To support this condusion the author points out a nationwide tendency to reelect
incumbent candidates regardless of their positions. The author also points out that a survey
taken after the election showed that most Monroetown residents oppose Brown's proposal. As
the following discussion shows, the author's argument is not well supported by the evidence.
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