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This editorial concludes that a two-year decline in sales of Whirlwind's video games is about
to reverse itself, and that sales will increase dramatically in the next few months. To justify this
conclusion the editorial's author cites a recent survey in which video-game players indicated a
preference for games with realistic graphics requiting state-of-the art computers. The editorial
then points out that Whirlwind has just introduced several such games, along with an extensive
advertising campaign aimed at people 10-25 years old---the demographic group most likely to
play video games. I find this argument specious on several grounds.
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First, the author provides no assurances that the survey on which the argument depends is
statistically reliable. Unless the survey's respondents are representative of the overall
population of video-game enthusiasts, the author cannot rely on it to predict the success of
Whirlwind's new games. For all we know a significant percentage of the respondents were not
10-25 years of age; for that matter, perhaps the number of respondents was too low to ensure
that they are typical of video-game enthusiasts in that age group.
Secondly, the argument relies on the assumption that the two-year decline in Whirlwind's
sales is attributable to a problem that Whirlwind's introduction of its new games and ad
campaign will solve. Yet it is enfixely possible that the decline was due to factors such as
imprudent pricing and distribution strategies or poor management, and that these problems
have not been remedied. In fact, perhaps the same advertising agency that is promoting
Whirlwind's new games also promoted Whirlwind's earlier games, and it was the agency's
inability to attract interest among the key demographic group that caused the decline. Since
the author has not dearly identified the cause of the decline, I cannot be convinced that
Whirlwind's new strategy will reverse that decline at all let alone dramaticaUy.
Thirdly, even if the ad campaign successfully attracts many 10-25 year-olds to Whirlwind's
new games, the argument rests on the further assumption that this result will suffice to cause
the predicted sales increase during the next few months. Yet this need not be the case.
Perhaps Whirlwind's new state-of-the-art games are prohibitively expensive for the key
demographic group. Or perhaps Whirlwind's competitors are now introducing similar games at
lower prices or with additional features that render them more attractive to video-game
enthusiasts than Whirlwind's new games. Unless the author can rule out such possibilities, I
simply cannot be swayed by the prediction that Whirlwind is about to experience a dramatic
increase in sales.
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