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First of all, the author unfairly assumes that the nationwide tendency applies specifically to
Monroetown residents. Lacking evidence that Monroetown voters reflect this general tendency,
it is entirely possible that Monroetown residents vote strictly according to their position on the
issues. For that matter, it is possible that Monroetown voters tend strongly to vote against
incumbents, in which case the author's claim that Monroetown residents oppose Brown's
proposal would more flagrantly fly in the face of the election results.
Secondly, the author fails to indicate when the statistics showing this nationwide tendency
were collected. The longer the time period between the collection of these statistics and the
election, the greater the possibility that the tendency has changed over this time span, and the
less justifiable the author's reliance on these statistics to support the claim that Monroetown
residents oppose Brown's proposal.
Thirdly, the author fails to indicate how much time passed between the Brown-Greene
election and the survey showing that most Monroetown residents oppose her proposal. If the
survey was conducted immediately after the election, then the fact that the election results
conflict with the survey results would cast considerable doubt on the reliability of either to
indicate what proposals Monroetown residents truly support. However, if the survey occurred
long after the election, then the conflict can readily be explained by changing opinions and
demographics over time. In either case, it is impossible to weigh the evidence without more
specific information about percentages. The larger the percentage of Monroetown residents
participating in the election, the greater the extent to which the election results would cast
doubt on the survey results. By the same token, the larger the percentage of Monroetown
residents shown by the survey to oppose Brown's proposal the more clearly this evidence
would support the author's argument.
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